According to the latest forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, global smartphone shipments are projected to increase by 4.0 percent year-over-year in 2024, reaching 1.21 billion units. The upward trajectory is expected to continue, with a 2.3% growth forecasted for 2025, followed by modest single-digit growth through the forecast period, resulting in a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.3 percent.
Nabila Popal, research director at IDC, highlighted the significant role of Android in driving this recovery: “While the overall market will see a relatively strong recovery this year with 4% growth coming from almost all regions, it is important to note that the majority of the growth will be driven by Android, which is expected to grow significantly faster at 4.8% compared to 0.7% for iOS (Apple).” Popal noted that Android’s rapid growth is rebounding from two challenging years, whereas iOS’s slower growth is due to a strong 2023 and rising competition in China affecting its potential. However, Popal suggested that if Apple introduces a compelling AI strategy for iPhones with clear use cases, it could boost iPhone demand, particularly in China. Despite these dynamics, she emphasized that the smartphone market is on a clear path to recovery.
Anthony Scarsella, another research director at IDC, pointed out the significant impact of 5G technology on the market. “5G-powered smartphones continue to fuel the market as these devices will display nearly 16% growth in 2024 as adoption continues to expand across all regions and markets,” Scarsella explained. He added that the growth is expected to persist, with 5G market share climbing to 74.4% in 2025, up from 67.2% in 2024. The expansion of 5G in emerging markets will be crucial in driving shipments throughout the forecast period. While the overall smartphone market is projected to achieve a 2.3% CAGR from 2024-2028, 5G shipments are expected to experience a robust 9.1% growth rate during the same period.
